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Swing states see newcomers as Americans move from blue to red counties • Louisiana Illuminator

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4 weeks ago

April 7, 2024

Staff Editor

lailluminator.com – Tim Henderson – 2024-04-07 15:00:33

Swing states see newcomers as Americans move from blue to red counties

by Tim Henderson, Louisiana Illuminator
April 7, 2024

In recent years, millions of people across the United States have moved from Democratic cities to Republican suburbs, complicating the politics of swing states in a pivotal election year, according to a Stateline analysis.

Republican suburban counties in four swing states — Georgia in the South and Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the Midwest — gained the most new arrivals; heavily Democratic cities lost the most. In Western swing states Arizona and Nevada, meanwhile, the biggest people magnets have been slightly Democratic cities that are expected to be hotly contested.

Those shifts reflect a nationwide trend: In Republican counties, as defined by the 2020 presidential vote, 3.7 million more people have moved in than have left since 2020, while Democratic counties had a net loss of 3.7 million, according to a Stateline analysis of U.S. Census Bureau estimates and county presidential election data kept by the University of Michigan.

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates released in March included people who moved within the country between mid-2020 and mid-2023, a time of pandemic dislocations, lockdowns in big cities, and the rise of remote work that fed a search for affordable housing in less crowded and more scenic settings. Those settings, as it turns out, also tend to be more conservative. The census numbers do not include births or immigration.

Whether the newcomers will vote Democratic this year, or whether they were disenchanted with Democratic policies in their former homes and will vote Republican, remains to be seen. The changes might affect local and congressional races the most, but even a few movers crossing state lines could sway presidential vote totals in swing states.

“We are looking at an election to be determined by a shift of such small numbers of people in each of these states that a few thousand votes in any one state can impact the electoral vote there,” said David Schultz, a political science professor at Hamline University in Minnesota who has edited and helped write several books on presidential swing states.

The counties gaining the most movers in Georgia (Forsyth County), Michigan (Ottawa County), Pennsylvania (Cumberland County) and Wisconsin (Waukesha County) were solidly for then-incumbent President Donald Trump in 2020. But in the three Midwest counties, Joe Biden had the best showing for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

Politics in a changing county

In some of the growing counties, there has been tension as new residents bring their own expectations.

“People keep moving here because they like it, then they try to make it like the place they left,” said David Avant, who runs a business networking website in Forsyth County, Georgia. His county gained about 17,000 new arrivals between mid-2020 and mid-2023, according to the Stateline analysis.

Politics might not yet be changing in some of the red counties surveyed. In Michigan, Doug Zylstra became the first Democrat elected in almost 50 years to the 11-member Ottawa County Board of Commissioners in 2018 and was reelected in 2022, but the commission took a more conservative turn in 2023 when a new majority took office.

People keep moving here because they like it, then they try to make it like the place they left.

– David Avant of Forsyth County, Georgia

“The people of Ottawa County chose to replace the previous Republican-majority board, which promoted Democratic ideology and practices,” said Sylvia Rhodea, one of the new Republicans on the commission.

In a January 2023 meeting, Rhodea criticized the previous board's diversity, equity and inclusion program as “based on the premise that county resident characteristics of being 90% white and largely conservative were problematic for businesses” and as one that “seeks to replace the American value of equality with the Marxist value of equity.”

“There is not a racial divide in Ottawa County, there is an ideological divide. The welcoming of people will continue, but the ideology that tries to divide us has to end,” Rhodea said in the meeting.

The Rev. James Ellis III, who is Black and who moved to Ottawa County in April 2023, lives in the area that elected the county's sole Democrat. He said the “racial divide” remark “feels inaccurate to me, not to mention unhelpful.” And while he said he has no party affiliation, he thinks “people on every side have a hard time listening to each other.”

Ellis grew up in Maryland and has lived in cities including Washington, D.C., and British Columbia, Canada. He attended a local seminary in Ottawa County.

“Ottawa County is not a utopia. It is an area full of wonderful citizens, lakeshore living, lots of churches and winter sports, and yet simultaneously it has power dynamics and inequities like any place that need addressing,” said Ellis, of Maplewood Reformed Church. The county's population is about 83% white with small but growing Asian, Black and Hispanic populations.

‘They vote for the same thing'

In Wisconsin, affluent and suburban Waukesha County has gained about 5,200 movers, while urban Milwaukee County has lost 37,000. Still, that's not likely to change the politics of either county soon, said Steve Styza, a Republican who won an open seat on the Waukesha County Board of Supervisors in Tuesday's election.

“Democrats are definitely trying to make as big of a push as they can to turn the most conservative counties in our state blue or purple and try to gain some kind of foothold because it is strategically important,” Styza said before the election. “If I was on the other team, I'd be trying to do the same thing.”

Waukesha County voted almost 60% for Trump in 2020, though the roughly 38.8% vote for Biden was the highest share for a Democrat since 1964. The county's 2022 vote for Democratic Gov. Tony Evers was slightly higher at 39.4%. Milwaukee County voted 69% for Biden in 2020 and 71% for Evers in 2022.

Like Avant in Georgia, Styza said that Democratic newcomers sometimes pose a threat to the suburban lifestyle that drew them there in the first place.

“They say, ‘Well, I gotta get out of there because of what's going on,' and then they vote for the same thing in a different place and then wonder why things turn out poorly,” Styza said.

In the Western swing states of Arizona and Nevada, the politics are similar, but the largest cities are still growing fast. Arizona's Maricopa County, home of Phoenix, voted Democratic in 2020 for the first time since 1948, when Harry Truman carried the county.

In Nevada, Clark County, the home of Las Vegas, has voted Democratic for president since 1992, but the Republican vote has been growing since 2008, reaching 44% for Trump in 2020. Some of the new Republican strength could be transplants from California's conservative inland region east of Los Angeles, said David Damore, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

“In contrast, Reno, which has been voting more Democratic in recent cycles, is attracting more liberal Californians from Sacramento and the Bay Area,” Damore said. “Statewide, the vote share that the Democrats lost in Las Vegas, they gained in Reno.”

Some conservative scholars argue that residential moves from blue to red areas show a political preference or at least an attraction to the results of conservative policies.

“Every day, Americans appear to have a clear preference about the sort of state government they want. Far from flocking to states that have imposed mandates and lockdowns, they have freely chosen to move to states that focus on securing the mandates of liberty,” Jeffrey Anderson, president of the conservative nonprofit American Main Street Initiative, wrote in an analysis of state-by-state moving statistics published in City Journal in January.

Other demographers see the movement of people as a search for housing and jobs that doesn't take politics into account.

“Domestic migration [moving] across state and metro areas is not strongly affected by politics but by labor market and housing conditions,” said William Frey, a demographer at The Brookings Institution. He added that movers from blue to red states “could make their destination states less red — Arizona and Nevada are good examples.”

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This report was first published by Stateline. It is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Stateline maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Scott S. Greenberger for questions: info@stateline.org. Follow Stateline on Facebook and Twitter.

Louisiana Illuminator is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Louisiana Illuminator maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Greg LaRose for questions: info@lailluminator.com. Follow Louisiana Illuminator on Facebook and Twitter.

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Revised education savings account bill advances with survey requirement • Louisiana Illuminator

Published

4 hours ago

May 2, 2024

Staff Editor

lailluminator.com – Greg LaRose – 2024-05-02 15:44:38

by Greg LaRose, Louisiana Illuminator
May 2, 2024

A broad survey of K-12 schools and how they use the public resources at their disposal would be undertaken before Louisiana implements a program that would allow families to use state money for private education, including tuition and tutoring, according to legislation advanced Thursday.

The Senate Committee on Finance voted 4-3 in favor of Senate Bill 313 from Sen. Rick Edmonds, R-Baton Rouge. It calls for the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education (BESE) to use those survey findings to inform its creation of an education savings accounts (ESA) program.

The time needed for the survey puts off, for at least one year, a decision from lawmakers on how much money they want to spend on ESAs, which have become a popular but expensive public education measure in Republican-led states. Indications are that the Legislature is very wary of spending big on a program with no defined ceiling

In its original version, Edmonds' bill would have made ESAs available universally to all families, regardless of income, by the 2028-29 school year provided the Legislature funded the program. A legislative staff estimate placed the cost of the program at that point at $260 million annually. The nonpartisan Public Affairs Resource Council of Louisiana puts that number closer to $520 million.

These nine-figure dollar amounts led to resistance from lawmakers, who are bracing for a projected state revenue decrease of $558 million a year once a 0.45% portion of the state sales tax expires on June 30, 2025.

Seeing unfavorable writing on the wall, Edmonds inserted the survey into his proposal to come up with a more precise cost figure for ESAs. The expense for BESE and the Louisiana Department of Education to conduct the study is unknown, but $1.8 million would be needed for the state school board to develop the ESA program, according to the bill's updated fiscal note.

Edmonds' proposal also calls for the state's existing school voucher program to lapse after the 2024-25 school year. It pays for about 5,600 K-12 students from low-income families at poor performing public schools to attend private schools. ESAs would first be available to only these voucher recipients starting with the 2025-26 academic year. They could use the money to stay at their current schools or enroll at another nonpublic campus.

The following year, the program would be open to kindergarten and existing public school students from families with income at or below 400% of the federal poverty guidelines, which was $31,200 for a family of four as of March 1.

The updated Edmonds bill does not include a date to make all students eligible for ESAs.

Sen. Katrina Jackson-Andrews, D-Monroe, proposed an amendment to Edmonds' proposal that included what she called “accountability measures” for the ESA program. It would require students who use the money at private schools to take the same end-of-course tests administered to their counterparts at public schools. Schools that accept ESA proceeds would then be given letter grades based on the students' performance on state tests.

Edmonds opposed the amendment, saying the updates to his bill allowed BESE to take steps toward accountability when its members build the framework for ESAs. Jackson-Andrews insisted she had been proactive about wanting the performance stipulations in the proposal, as opposed to waiting until the last minute.

“I didn't play ‘hide the ball' with this amendment,” she said.

Edmonds promised to consider such changes before his bill was advanced to the full Senate.

The House has approved a similar ESA proposal, House Bill 745, from Rep. Julie Emerson, R-Carencro, that doesn't include the survey in Edmonds' version. It awaits a hearing in the Senate Education Committee.

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Louisiana Illuminator

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem meets with Jeff Landry’s cabinet in Baton Rouge • Louisiana Illuminator

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4 hours ago

May 2, 2024

Staff Editor

lailluminator.com – Piper Hutchinson – 2024-05-02 15:30:56

by Piper Hutchinson, Louisiana Illuminator
May 2, 2024

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, who's in the midst of a controversy over admitting to killing her dog, was in Baton Rouge to meet with Gov. Jeff Landry's cabinet Thursday at the Capitol, multiple attendees at the meeting confirmed to the Illuminator.

Noem is reportedly still in consideration to be former President Donald Trump's running mate in this fall's election despite her recent revelation that she killed her dog Cricket with a shotgun. She spoke to Landry's cabinet about lessons she has learned during her time as governor, according to sources inside the meeting.

Cricket's untimely end, which Noem details in her new book, did not come up in the meeting, attendees said.

Landry was not in attendance at the meeting, which was just the second cabinet meeting held this term. Kate Kelly, a spokesperson for Landry, did not respond to requests for comment for this story.

Noem is a close personal friend of Landry's. She has been among the participants in his annual alligator hunt fundraiser, an event that has also drawn Donald Trump Jr. and other national conservative figures.

Landry and Noem share other political connections as well.

Landry spent thousands to receive political advice from Corey Lewandowski for his governor's campaign. Lewandowski and Noem are close and reportedly had an affair, although a spokesperson for Noem has denied the allegations.

Landry's secretary for the Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, Madison Sheahan, also worked “directly and indirectly” for Noem and was executive director of the Republican Party in South Dakota.

Noem is slated to make an appearance this week at a Palm Beach event with Trump Sr. and other potential vice presidential picks, Politico reports.

This is a developing story.

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Louisiana Illuminator

Louisiana House committee shelves bills targeting libraries • Louisiana Illuminator

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1 day ago

May 1, 2024

Staff Editor

lailluminator.com – Piper Hutchinson – 2024-05-01 18:18:15

by Piper Hutchinson, Louisiana Illuminator
May 1, 2024

In a contentious hearing, a Louisiana House Committee shelved two library bills Wednesday, including one that would have criminalized librarians for using public dollars with the nation's preeminent professional organization for librarians.

The House Committee on Municipal, Parochial and Cultural Affairs involuntarily deferred two bills: House Bill 777 by Rep. Kellee Hennessy Dickerson, R-Denham Springs, which would prohibit the use of public funds on the American Library Association (ALA); and House Bill 946 by Rep. Jay Gallé, R-Covington, which would allow parish governments to remove library board members at any time, for any reason.

Both bills were spiked amid bipartisan pushback, with several Republicans raising concerns about libraries and librarians being targeted as part of a national agenda.

“It makes me sad that libraries and the people here in the audience have been vilified for a national narrative,” Rep. Jessica Domangue, R-Houma, said, referencing librarians in attendance.

The library bills are part of what many see as part of a culture war currently raging across the nation, including in Louisiana.

Upset with what they view as sexually explicit materials in libraries and the “Marxist” American Library Association, far-right activists have filed thousands of book challenges in the past few years and pushed libraries to disaffiliate with the ALA.

In Louisiana, public library oversight boards have mostly resisted calls to restrict book content, but some, including the State Library, have ended their ALA memberships.

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The issue has captured the interest of Republicans in Louisiana, including Gov. Jeff Landry.

As attorney general, Landry set up a tip line to field complaints against libraries that he said failed to protect children from “early sexualization, as well as grooming, sex trafficking, and abuse.” Landry later drafted a “Protecting Innocence” report on libraries and supported legislation to restrict minors' access to certain library materials.

Some on the House committee raised concerns Wednesday that the bills seemed to impose solutions sought by the representatives' respective constituents on the rest of the state.

In Gallé's St. Tammany Parish, the parish council is meeting Wednesday night to approve replacing its library board of control, which has resisted calls to ban books, angering arch-conservative council members. Gallé argued parish governments already have the power to do so, but his bill would codify this authority in state law.

Gallé's bill is similar to one his predecessor, former Rep. Paul Hollis, who now sits on the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education, carried last year. Hollis' bill was also involuntarily deferred in the same committee.

In Dickerson's Livingston Parish, the library has been similarly mired in years-long controversy over book content. The library there has opted to sever its relationship with the American Library Association.

In its original form, Dickerson's bill would have conferred jail time and fines to anybody who requested or authorized the use of public money with the American Library Association. Such expenses are fairly common in libraries, as many libraries are members to take advantage of ALA benefits or send their librarians to conferences for continuing education.

Before the bill was killed, Dickerson okayed amendments that would've watered down the punishments in the bill and exempted higher education. The ALA is an accrediting body for masters of library science programs. Programs with this accreditation typically maintain memberships with the organization.

Dickerson was joined in presenting her bill to the committee by Livingston Parish Council member Erin Sandefur and Livingston Parish Library Board of Control member Larry Davis. The trio argued the ALA is a “radical” organization, and everything it espouses runs contrary to “normative” views.

The organization is often in the crosshairs of conservatives due to the group's advocacy on behalf of literature with LGBTQ+ themes.

The villainization of the American Library Association is something that perplexes most librarians.

“I'm not sure exactly what these people think go on at ALA conferences,” Suzanne Stauffer, an LSU library and information science professor, said in an interview. “It's workshops about how to better meet the needs of their community.”

“Frankly, the conferences are dull,” Stauffer added, laughing.

Domangue made the same point to the committee, reading out names of panels at an upcoming ALA conference that she said had nothing to do with the “social justice” causes Dickerson and her allies were citing.

Rep. Vincent Cox, R-Gretna, reminded committee members the ALA was the first organization to hold a major convention in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, during which conference-goers raised money to aid libraries damaged by the storm.

Three other library bills are still alive for the current session: House Bill 414, by Rep Josh Carlson, R-Lafayette, and House Bill 545 by Rep. Beryl Amedee, R-Houma, would remove exceptions for public libraries and school libraries, respectively, from the state law on obscenity, while Carlson's House Bill 974 removes the requirement that directors of parish library systems receive state certification, which requires librarians to pass an exam and hold a master's degree in library science.

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